50% tourism revenue increase by 2015 takes a beating, and gains a year

I noticed an interesting anomaly recently, and while I’m quite happy to accept it could be a mistake on my part, or even down to dyslexia (which I think I really to have a touch of), I think the real source is simply down to someone somewhere gleaning themselves an extra year to reach an unattainable target.

I seem to have started giving the official set goal of increasing tourism (revenue) in Scotland by “50% by 2015″ back in 2008, when I noted Tourism bubble might be bursting :

Back in November of 2007 the Scottish Parliament’s economy, energy and tourism committee launched an inquiry into tourism, intended to find out if the target of increasing tourism revenues by 50 per cent by 2015 is realistic. In its written response to the inquiry, the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce claimed the target was set as a result of political ambition rather than a factual analysis. Since then, similar views have been expressed by those in the business.

I have little time for anything motivated by political ambition.

The target is a joke, and ever since it appeared, the media has featured stories every so often which bemoan various things like the recession, and the release of Abdelbaset Mohmed Ali al-Megrahi to return home to die of prostate cancer, as reasons why tourists, particularly wealthy Americans (supposedly the easiest to part from the money), are not coming to Scotland in the numbers that those behind the target decreed.

Then there’s the mysterious extension of the target period by a year, from 2015 to 2016.

As noted in opening, I know I can make the odd slip, and don’t claim to be perfect, but I find it had to accept that I didn’t notice changing 2016 to 2015 when I made the little graphic to go with this recurring tale.

But 2016 it is now, and that is said to be based on having set the figure in 2006, and being given a decade to deliver it.

The quote to follow below ‘proves’ me wrong.

However, I find it also contains some interesting revelations, which are rather disturbing, considering that they are only being highlighted six years after this potentially daft target was set.

Most notable (apart from the suggestion that the target will not be met) is the suggestion that there is no existing system to work out if the 50% target has been met: “The committee also raised concern that there is currently no proper way to measure how well Scottish tourism is doing“, allied with what appears to be a suggestion to set up (yet another) new organisation so that it can be verified: “but notes the evidence from witnesses that the 50% target is not considered achievable.

Well, at least they will be able to say it is self-funding, from that 50% increase in tourist revenue that it will be counting.

A target for a 50% boost in Scotland’s tourism industry by 2016 cannot be met, the Scottish Parliament’s economy committee has warned.

The 10-year Scottish government growth plan was set in 2006, before the global economic crisis hit.

In a new report, the Holyrood committee cited industry concern the target was “not considered achievable”.

Scotland’s multibillion-pound tourism industry is said to support more than 200,000 jobs.

In 2006, the previous Scottish government, under its tourism strategy for the decade ahead, outlined its ambition for a 50% real-terms boost in tourism revenue under a plan to “keep pace with global trends over the next 10 years”.

The target was carried forward when the SNP came to power, but the cross-party Holyrood committee, which has been investigating the issue and took evidence from a range of industry figures, raised concern.

Its report stated: “The committee welcomes the ambition of setting and trying to achieve a high tourism growth target, but notes the evidence from witnesses that the 50% target is not considered achievable.”

The committee also raised concern that there is currently no proper way to measure how well Scottish tourism is doing, and urged the government to consider setting up a new system for gathering statistics and other performance-related information.

It also asked tourism agency VisitScotland to provide annual updates on whether the 50% target will actually be met, as well as a plan to deal with any shortfall.

Via BBC News – Scottish tourism target ‘may not be met’

And I get to keep writing the occasion Blog entry about this for another five… oops, sorry… six years.

It’s not the first time we have been fed preparation for failure to meet this target. It’s just a little over a year since I wrote Scottish Government tourism decree looks increasingly fragile.

The Forth Bridge Experience – The view from 300 feet

I couldn’t let the idea of installing a viewing platform and lifts for visitors on to the Forth Bridge pass without comment.

At a time when millions are being poured down the drain to promote the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in 2014, on the basis of some fantasy known as ‘Lasting Legacy’ (promised to follow all such events, but seldom delivered afterwards), this idea is just t0o sensible to ever see the light of day.

But, I hope my first thoughts on this are proved wrong.

Rather than the grand ideas that attract publicity, this is sort of thing we desperately need to see more of in Scotland if it is to profit from its role as a ‘tourist trap’ now that it has no industry to speak of.

There must be (and there are) many more ideas such as this floundering around out there, too expensive for inspired individuals to finance and turn into reality without backing, but still costing just a fraction of the huge money-pits like the 2014 Games, whose high-profile, but here-today-gone-tomorrow nature, sees grabbing all the investment.

We need more smaller projects which are sustainable and here to stay, spread across the country and keeping a steady drip of visitors moving around and parting with their tourist cash, rather than big-bang one-off events that cost more to stage than they can ultimately return.

Rail chiefs are looking at the idea of building a viewing platform for visitors to be hoisted more than 300ft to the top of the Forth Rail Bridge.

Network Rail, which manages the bridge, has confirmed it is examining the feasibility of establishing visitor access.

The platform would offer impressive views of all around the Firth of Forth.

via BBC News – Plan for viewing platform at top of Forth Rail Bridge.

Also Viewing platform could turn Forth Bridge into Scotland’s Eiffel Tower | News | Edinburgh | STV

Forth Bridge no scaffolding in 2011 © James Allan

Update

It seems the above idea made it into the news only a few days before the 122nd anniversary of the first train crossing the Forth Bridge.

You can see hundred of images of this iconic bridge, dating from its very beginnings to the present day, here:

Site Record for Forth Bridge Forth Rail Bridge; Forth Railway Bridge; River Forth; Inner Forth Estuary; Queensferry Narrows; South Queensferry; Dalmeny Digital_images

Has somebody noticed Scotland’s dark skies?

It’s two years since I noted Galloway Forest Park wins Dark Sky award.

To me, given the Scottish Government’s edict of a 50% increase in the amount collected from tourists, issued a few years ago (and I think seldom referred to nowadays – other than by me, it’s a regular in this Blog), this is something unique, and which should have been jumped on as an asset, and relatively valuable USP (unique selling proposition).

But it wasn’t, at least not in any obvious way in those past two years – opportunity lost.

So called Dark Skies Tourism may be small, but it doesn’t take much to cater for enthusiasts. They bring their own equipment, which can be as simple as the naked eye, as dark skies mean that a lot can be seen compared to anywhere near a light polluted city or urban environment. What they really need is just a little organisation, hotels and guest houses that don’t make an issue of, or have silly rules about guests leaving and returning during hours of darkness. I’ve stayed in a few odd places with odd rules in the past, hopefully a thing of the past and they are all gone now, but nonetheless, for dark sky observers, it would be a disaster to land in such a place.

It’s not too clear, but the clip from a NASA view of the night-time Earth does show the notable difference between the north-west of Scotland, and the rest of the country.

The BBC recently made a short film on the subject:

BBC News – Dark skies tourism boosts Scottish economy

At the same time, it also covered the matter of light pollution, and referred to the annual Star Count:

BBC News – Light pollution: Is there a solution?

See also:

International Dark-Sky Association

Organisation of parties to suitable viewing places in the deserted north-west of Scotland might not be a bad idea either. I used to tour the area in search of specific historic locations, and to save time would often travel at night. Being something of an insomniac, I could make the most of daylight to explore, without wasting daylight hours on travel. However, one thing that often stopped me in my tracks was the simple act of filling my car with petrol. Sorties into some areas meant ending my days prematurely as I could only travel 300 miles on one tank of fuel. Since petrol stations are both rare in such areas, and run to shop hours (usually shut before 6 pm), trips into dry areas had to be planned to reach one before it closed, or I had to give up before running out of petrol. Seriously.

On more than one occasion, if I had been held up on the road, I had to park up in a small village and sleep in the car, waiting for the local petrol station to open up in the morning. Hard to believe for city folk used to 24/7 fuel supplies, but if I could not fill up before 6 pm, I could only go as far as the remains in my tank allowed until thing opened up the next morning – and a spare gallon in the boot didn’t help much. Id have had to go a lot further than that to get to a 24/7 garage, and I had them all logged in my GPS. This was a few years ago, so I can only assume things are even worse now, given the various media stories of more and more petrol station closures in the north as the price rises and sales fall.

Even though it seems to be missing opportunities, the numbers seem to show that visitor numbers to Scotland are rising…

However, it also warns that a closer look at the number shows that while they may be on the increase, they are not bringing in the new money the decree call for, as the rise is in staycations (people choosing to holiday at home), while the number of overseas visitors is actually dropping.

Maybe they have discovered the advantages of the staycation too.

BBC News – Rise in Scottish tourist numbers

Has “50% by 2015″ been forgotten and forsaken?

While I was reading some news regarding the boost that the so-called ‘staycation’ has brought to Scottish tourism, I also noticed that the once oft-mentioned mantra of ’50% by 2015′ coined by the Scottish Government seems to have disappeared.

I’ve referred to this decree fairly frequently, and the reason is quite simple. It was issued while everything was spiralling in decline due to the recession, as I was looking at a number of Clyde coast hotels closing their doors, or not even opening their doors due to dwindling visitor numbers, but there did not seem to be any assistance on offer for those businesses – which would be needed if such growth was to be delivered.

Reading an article that claimed ‘Staycations’ boost for Scottish tourism (according to VisitScotland) doesn’t strike me as positive as it tries to be, where it reports that the first six months of 2011 saw a 6% increase in domestic tourism compared to 2010, and the total number of visits to Scotland rose by 4%, which included visits from outside the UK.

Visitor spend in the period was estimated at £1.7 billion.

It went on to state that 84% of all trips to Scotland came from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, making tourism in Scotland heavily dependent on domestic visitors – so only 16% came from elsewhere.

They may be encouraged, but I’m not, as the number coming from overseas is small, so in all honesty we are not bringing in any new money, but merely recirculating our own money in the local economy. It’s a bit like bidding for your own stuff at auction… and winning most of the bids.

Fair enough, this is still good news for keeping businesses ticking over, but recirculation is not growth. And there is no mention of American tourists. Once mentioned often, ever since the fuss over the release of a certain prisoner from a Scottish jail, many Americans said they would not be back.

Maybe we should be trying to attract rich Russian oligarchs to make up.

I’m afraid I’m not convinced by the ‘staycation’, despite the encouragement other are demonstrating.

Hotels and similar business on the Clyde coast still look to me to be in deep trouble, and staycations don’t do much, if anything, to help them, as their increasing prices (as they add more ‘value-added’ options to their tariffs) mean that staycationers are becoming converted to day-trippers who prefer to operate from home, and spend their money on increasingly expensive fuel and travel costs, rather than accommodation.

I await more news – this time detailing how much visitors from abroad spent.

Chernobyl dead zone closes to tourists

Catching up on some reading of items missed while I was diverted recently, I was intrigued to see that the tourist visits to Chernobyl had been suspended, and are even being described as having been potentially illegal. The report into the tours suggests that nobody knows where the money is going, and at $100 per tourist for more than 10,000 tourists per years, the total is more than a rouble or two.

Chernobyl – the scene of the world’s worst nuclear disaster – has been attracting a growing stream of adventurers hungry for a glimpse of its post-apocalyptic landscape. Now, though, the globe’s most surreal tourist site looks set to close its doors.

The Chernobyl museum in Kiev has become one of Ukraine’s top tourist attractions. Interest peaked in April of this year, when the world marked the 25th anniversary of the disaster. But for those craving a first-hand experience of Armageddon, there is a more adventurous alternative.

The contaminated zone around Chernobyl itself is the real deal for those seeking an unusual experience. Over the past decade, tourists have been flocking here – more than 10,000 of them each year.

Forbes magazine even named this dead zone one of the world’s most exotic tourist destinations.

RT’s Aleksey Yaroshevsky has made regular reporting trips to the zone and spoke to Alexander Sirota, a former resident of the ghost town of Pripyat, who has been organizing these tours for several years.

He told RT visitors are always fascinated by what they see, although their motivations for making the trip vary.

“People have different reasons [to come here] – some want to see what an apocalypse could look like. Some want to feel the history. For some – this is their childhood, like the Soviet atmosphere being preserved. But for me it’s more important not why they come here, but what effect it has on them”, says Alexander.

But since June, this radioactive tourism has been suspended. The prosecutor general’s office conducted checks and ruled that the Emergencies Ministry had broken the law with these trips as well as making an unhealthy profit.

via Chernobyl dead zone to close to tourists — RT.

Tourism plan seeks financial backing

I always find my eye drawn to tourism stories in advance of 2015, when we will learn if the Scottish Government’s decree for a 50% increase by 2015 was delivered.

Being an industrial type (by which I just mean my business was engineering, not tourism) I always what sort of numbers are involved in the plans intended to work towards this aim.

A recent story regarding some plans in the south of Scotland puts some numbers into the pot for consideration.

I have to say I am impressed, and the thought of getting £50 million back over three years for an input of £3 million is a cosy one – if it is delivered. I would expect a queue of backers wanting to sign up.

A council is being asked to approve a funding package to support a £3m project designed to boost tourism across the south of Scotland.

Dumfries and Galloway Council would put £426,000 into the scheme with Scottish Borders Council and VisitScotland.

It is estimated additional visitor revenue of more than £50m could be generated by the three-year project.

It would also create more than 20 new jobs and safeguard about 900 posts across the region.

The specific focus of the plan is to market the area as a tourist destination outside the summer season.

How the tourism funding package is broken down

* £1,114,037 – VisitScotland

* £426,000 – Dumfries and Galloway Council

* £184,500 – Scottish Borders Council

* £1,288,913 – ERDF grant

* £3,013,450 – Total

Read more in the original story via BBC News – South of Scotland tourism plan seeks financial backing.

Tourism talks itself up

I have to admit to a certain naughty desire to make sure no-one forgets the Scottish Government decreed that the Scottish Tourist industry should increase its business by 50% by 2015 – an ambitious demand considering we were suffering a recession at the time.

I’ve noticed that those in the industry are beginning to hit the news with stories that are distinctly upbeat, and always seem to be ‘talking up’ the industry’s prospects.

And I hope they’re right, as opposed to contemplating their belly button fluff.

I seem to recall that VisitScotland has lost its funding to some locations, Rothesay comes to mind, and I think there is mention in this blog of its Discovery Centre being at risk of closure when the council ended its funding after ten years. A few days ago, Council cuts saw Lochgilphead Tourist Office remained closed with no funding for 2011/12 season.

Travelodge surveyed 5,000 people (source unknown) and reported that over one-third plan to holiday at home – apparently now known as a staycation – and that an average seven-day UK holiday cost £422, consisting of £250 on travel and accommodation, and £172 visiting attractions.

They added that British tourism industry is set to be boosted by an estimated  £7.2 billion thanks to the staycation.

If you’ve been there, then you’ll know why the Scottish Highlands is at the top of the tree – it’s the only place on the mainland you can go and get anything approaching peace and quiet.

(There is another reason, but I’m afraid I’m keeping that one a secret – lest I start a stampede.)

Top 10 staycation destinations

• Scottish Highlands
• London
• Edinburgh
• Blackpool
• Manchester
• Peak District
• Lake District
• Cornwall
• Great Yarmouth
• Scarborough

BBC News – Highlands come top in ‘staycation’ survey

The German Factor

After noticing the staycation story, I was even more intrigued to read that a report produced for Highland Council suggested that the Scottish Highlands could benefit from Germany’s faster than expected recovery from the recession.

It identified Germany as being second only to America as regards the greatest number of tourist heading for the Highlands.

The same presentation was also reported to show that most tourists heading for the Highlands – 80% – came from the UK ,with 55% of those coming from Scotland itself.

Dumfries and Galloway has 5-year tourism boost plan

I know it may look as if I am mocking the Scottish Government’s decree that Scotland should increase its returns from tourism by ’50% by 2015′, but the truth is that I really want to keep the pot boiling on this one, in any little way I can, in the hope that it will not be forgotten. I’ll be the first to clap and cheer if this target is met or exceeded.

Scotland has always been a wonderful place to be a tourist, even if you happen to have been born and bred there (or should that be here? ), and it has never ceased to amaze me how people from countries that I would consider to offer more impressive attractions – and weather! – say that they are stunned by what they have seen, and will be coming back.

I know from my own family’s photographs that they were off into the Highlands whenever they could, as soon as they managed to get a car, and that was somewhere back in the 1920s.

Although a number of tourism related sectors have started the year with tales of woe, and warning of a tough year ahead – recession, cuts, strikes, inflation etc – it looks as if Dumfries & Galloway is seeking to avoid talking itself into an early grave, and has started the year by announcing the formation of a 5-year plan intended to grow the value of tourism in the area by some £70 million, from a current value estimated to total around £270 million, up to £340 million.

The strategy has been produced by the efforts of a number of agencies in the area, such as Destination Dumfries & Galloway, and is being chaired by Wilma Finlay, who runs the Cream O’ Galloway ice cream company.

Scottish Government tourism decree looks increasingly fragile

One of the things that has always amused me was the Scottish Government’s decree, made back in 2008, that there would be a target of increasing tourism revenues by 50% by 2015. I wasn’t alone, and more enlightened authorities than me questioned whether or not such a call was realistic, and I referred to this in my post: One million tourists missing from Scotland

Since then, we’ve had supposedly rubbish summer weather, volcanic eruptions, airline strikes, and even American campaigns to isolate Scotland after Abdelbaset Mohmed Ali al-Megrahi was released from prison by the Scottish Government.

I can’t find a corresponding list of positive contributions to the 50% decree.

Now that we have the various cuts and economies being made in the light of ‘The Recession’, it seems that there are further tales of woe to be added, and so far, I have not tripped over any stories relating to any revision of the ’50% by 2015′ decree.

VisitScotland is Scotland’s national tourism agency, and is a public body with offices in Edinburgh, Inverness, and London (and some others locations), and operates alongside VisitBritain. Whether or not it is justified, and VisitScotland might just be handy scapegoat, the organisation is not universally loved, and has come in for some criticism for its spending – but that may just be mischief-making by some who have not been able to get money out of the agency for their pet project.

However, what is more certain is that the ’50% by 2015′ decree cannot be aided by continually cutting its funding. The agency has seen a number of significant cuts in recent years, and more cuts were announced today.

Two years ago, Edinburgh City Council cut its funding by more than £500,000 – claiming it was not getting good value for money.

Scottish Borders Council, which gave £212,000 to VisitScotland for the financial year 2008-09, cut its contribution by £27,000 a year for the next three years.

Last year, the Scottish Government cut VisitScotland’s funding by 6.3% to £41 million.

Now, Glasgow will cut £400,000 in order to focus on its own city marketing bureau.

Scottish councils were contributing some about £4 million per annum to the agency, with the rest of its funding coming from commercial partners.

In a separate development this week, VisitScotland expressed disappointment to the news that VisitBritain was shed nearly 70 jobs to cut costs.

I thought the ’50% by 2015′ was ambitious and unwise when I first saw it back in 2008, but, on the other hand, had one eye on Scotland’s industrial decline, and thought that there was at least some imagination and perception in the minds of those who sought to promote tourism, and that they might just pull it off with a following wind, and support from all those involved.

As it is, there is already evidence of dissent in the ranks, and one does not have to look far to find global matters acting to the detriment of Scottish tourism.

We have four years to go until we reach 2015, there may be a change of Government and staff in that time, and it will be interesting to see if anyone remembers the ’50% by 2015′ decree, and if there is any report on its outcome published in that year.

Hotel hint

There may be an indication of how well the decree is coming along, as the hotel sector reports a fall in occupancy for 2010.

The reporter suggested the figures indicate just how negatively the adverse weather conditions affected the Scottish hotel sector, especially in Edinburgh.

Scotland had the highest occupancy figures for the UK during 2010 at an average of 71.6% compared with 69.4% for the UK.

Overall, year-on-year occupancy levels fell by 8.5%, while the UK as a whole saw a fall of 2.5%.

Revenue in Scotland was down 9.1%, in the UK it increased by 0.1% for the same time period.

The downturn in Scottish figures was not uniform – occupancy levels in Aberdeen increased by 10.2% and saw a 10.6% rise in revenue.

However, occupancy in Edinburgh fell by 12.5% and revenue by 11%. Edinburgh recorded a large fall in December, although the capital was in the top three performing cities for last year with an average occupancy of 77.0% and an average room yield of £67.65.

Glasgow was more stable with an occupancy fall of 2.6% and a fall in revenue of 5.1%.

All interesting stuff, but it would be interesting to see something that reported on what was happening in smaller places around the country, such as the more interesting former resorts around the coast, and those places that are more interesting than the big cities.

After all, there’s not much point coming to Scotland for ‘the scenery’, and then staying in the shopping cathedrals of Edinburgh, Glasgow, or Aberdeen. The visitors might as well have stayed at home, in their own giant malls.

Whither tourism in Scotland?

Scottish tourism

There have been quite a few stories regarding tourism in Scotland, and my eye is inevitably drawn to them after the Scottish Government decreed that there should be a 50% increase in tourism in Scotland by 2015. I’m not entirely sure by what metric this is to be measured and deemed a success or failure, so am trying not to forget about this ‘order’ before 2015 arrives, and see if anyone else remembers it, and reports the final outcome.

Trauma

I found it slightly amusing to note that the head of VisitScotland had described 2010 as a traumatic year for Scottish tourism. I think the list of causes he cited will have affected rather more countries than just Scotland, and are virtually worldwide in some cases. These included severe weather, volcanic ash, the recession, and strikes (within the aviation industry).

I think he should have said these were probably good for us at the moment, as their global effects might combine to mean that others didn’t gain advantage as a result. He put numbers to the story too, saying that: ‘The UK market was up about 6% through 2010 and the Scottish market up 16%.’ I would have thought that numbers like that meant the last  year was anything but ‘traumatic’.

American favour

Despite these problems, Scotland is still managing to do something right, and Britain’s largest national park – the Cairngorms National Park – and the Highlands were included in a list of the National Geographic Traveler’s 20 Best Trips. The US magazine included them along with Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia, and Alaska’s Kodiak Island.

Senior editor Norie Quintos said the ‘primeval landscape of the north and west’ drew visitors to the Cairngorms, and that the ‘primeval landscape north and west of the Highland Boundary Fault attracts outdoor enthusiasts drawn to the mist-shrouded mountains, shimmering lochs, sheer cliffs, and sandy beaches’, after she attended the Adventure Travel World Summit held in Aviemore last October.

Cruise ships

One of the more interesting developments which has become apparent over the past few years is a rise in the number of cruise ships which appear off the west coast. This has been noticeable in the Clyde, as a look in the photo albums shows the arrival of some huge ships that have not been seen there before, and it seems that they are also stopping at our Highland ports to drop of visiting passengers. Fort William was reported to have seen its first cruise ship visit during 2010.

The ‘best job in the world’

And finally, in what it has been described as the ‘best job in the world’, a Scottish travel firm is looking for up to 40 new ‘personalities’ to lead tours around Scotland. Currently 12 positions are available for guides, with plans for 40 new staff over the next three years. Rabbie’s Trail Burners is probably one of those Scottish success stories we should really hear more about. Robin Worsnop set up the business in 1993, using a loan of £6,000 from his brother to buy a mini-coach after graduating with an MA in history from the University of Edinburgh. In 2009 the firm had a turnover of £2.5 million.